Cepni, OguzhanGupta, Rangan2022-08-162022-08-162022-07Cepni, O., Gupta, R., Karahan, C.C. et al. 2022, 'Oil price shocks and yield curve dynamics in emerging markets', International Review of Economics & Finance, vol. 80, pp. 613-623., doi : 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.065.1059-0560 (print)1873-8036 (online)10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.065https://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/86791RETRACTION NOTICE to “Oil price shocks and yield curve dynamics in emerging markets” [International Review of Economics and Finance 80 (2022) 613–623] This article has been retracted: please see Elsevier policy on article withdrawal (https://www.elsevier.com/about/policies-and-standards/article-withdrawal). Elsevier's Research Integrity & Publishing Ethics team, with guidance from an impartial field expert acting in the role of an independent Publishing Ethics Advisor, conducted an investigation and determined that the article should be retracted. Review of this submission was overseen, and the final decision was made, by the Editor Brian Lucey, despite his role as a co-author of the manuscript. This compromised the editorial process and breached the journal's policies. The authors disagree with retraction and dispute the grounds for it.In a local projections framework, we study the impact of oil price shocks, based on a refined approach to disentangle oil price movements, on the dynamics of the entire yield curve in nineteen emerging economies with different positions on the oil market. Responses of the term structure factors to oil market shocks are shown to differ conditional on not only the underlying sources that drive oil price, but also based on the oil-dependence of these economies. In particular, we find that oil price risk shocks put upward pressure on the level, slope, and curvature of interest rates across the board. Supply-driven shocks in oil markets cause a rise in the level of interest rates in oil-importing economies more significantly, yet the downward impact on yield curve slope is more pronounced in oil-exporting countries. Demand-driven shocks have a significant and persistent upward impact on level factors in oil-importing countries. Furthermore, the effect of precautionary demand shocks on the curvature factor is more pronounced in oil-importing countries vis-à-vis oil-exporters. Significance, direction, and duration of our results may guide monetary policymakers in emerging countries as well as international investors in portfolio and hedging decisions.en© 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was submitted for publication in International Review of Economics and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms are not reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 80, pp. 613-623, 2022. doi : 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.065.Emerging marketsLocal projectionsOil priceSupply and demand shocksYield curve factorsPreprint Article