Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.Munyakazi, Justin B.Ouifki, RachidClark, Allan E.2019-02-082019-02-082018-06-08Mukhtar, A.Y.A., Munyakazi, J.B., Ouifki, R., Clark, A.E. (2018) Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan. PLoS ONE 13(6): e0198280. https://DOI.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198280.10.1371/journal.pone.019828010.1371/journal.pone.0198280http://hdl.handle.net/2263/68435S1 Appendix. Proof of the proportion 4.1.S1 Dataset. Weekly malaria cases data.A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model's basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs' coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, R0, confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce R0 and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs' distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.en© 2018 Mukhtar et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.MalariaTransmissionSouth SudanBednetsLong lasting insecticide nets (LLIN)Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)Article