Groneck, MaxLudwig, AlexanderZimper, Alexander2016-03-082016-03Groneck, M, Ludwig, A & Zimper, A 2015, 'A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs', Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 162, pp. 137-180.0022-0531 (print)1095-7235 (online)0.1016/j.jet.2015.12.008http://hdl.handle.net/2263/51709Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities re ecting likelihood in- sensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo- additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neo- additive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet expected utility life-cycle consumption model and calibrate it with data on subjective survival beliefs from the Health and Retirement Study. Our quantitative analysis shows that agents with calibrated neo-additive survival beliefs (i) save less than originally planned, (ii) exhibit undersaving at younger ages, and (iii) hold larger amounts of assets in old age than their rational expectations counterparts who correctly assess their survival chances. Our neo-additive life-cycle model can therefore simultaneously accommodate three important empirical ndings on household saving behavior.en© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Economic Theory. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 162, pp. 137-180, 2015. doi : 10.1016/j.jet.2015.12.008.Bayesian learningLikelihood insensitivityAmbiguityChoquet expected utilityDynamic inconsistencyLife-cycle hypothesisSaving puzzlesPostprint Article