Salisu, Afees A.Gupta, RanganDemirer, Riza2022-08-162022-08-162022-12Salisu, A. A., Gupta, R., & Demirer, R. (2022). The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier: Evidence from a GVAR model. International Finance, 25(3) : 313-340. https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12414.1367-0271 (print)1468-2362 (online)10.1111/infi.12414https://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/86799The data that support the findings of this study are available at : http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/peoplefiles/emeritus/mhp1/GVAR/GVAR.html for the GVAR database and http://policyuncertainty.com/wui_quarterly.html for Economic policy uncertainty.This study examines the role of the global financial cycle (GFCy) in the propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States to other national economies using a large-scale global vector autoregressive model of 33 countries. Although the dominant role of US uncertainty over global economic dynamics is established, the findings highlight the moderating role of the GFCy in the spillover effects of uncertainty shocks. The US uncertainty shocks, compared with own-domestic uncertainty shocks, are found to have a more prominent negative impact on output during stressed market conditions, implied by low values of the GFCy, while the impact turns largely insignificant during high GFCy states. The findings provide evidence in favour of a US uncertainty spillover multiplier, suggesting that the design of monetary policy as a response to US uncertainty needs to be contingent on the state of the integrated global financial markets, captured by the GFCy.en© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the submitted version of the following article : The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier: Evidence from a GVAR model. International Finance, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 313-340, 2022. doi : 10.1111/infi.12414. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/infi.Global financial cycle (GFCy)Global vector autoregressive modelReal GDPGross domestic product (GDP)Uncertainty shocksPreprint Article