Salisu, Afees A.Adediran, Idris A.Gupta, Rangan2022-03-112022-03-112022Afees A. Salisu, Idris A. Adediran & Rangan Gupta (2022) A Note on the COVID-19 Shock and Real GDP in Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58:1, 93-101, DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854.1540-496X (print)1558-0938 (online)10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854http://hdl.handle.net/2263/84438In this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries.en© 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. This is an electronic version of an article published in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 93-101, 2022. doi : 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade is available online at : http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mree20.Real GDPGross domestic product (GDP)COVID-19 pandemicCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Threshold-augmented global vector autoregressive (TGVAR)Emerging economiesUnited States (US)Preprint Article