Cunado, JuncalGupta, RanganLau, Chi Keung MarcoSheng, Xin2019-08-222020Juncal Cunado, Rangan Gupta, Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng (2019): Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices, Defence and Peace Economics, 31(6):692-706. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854.1024-2694 (print)1476-8267 (online)10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854http://hdl.handle.net/2263/71168This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.en© 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an electronic version of an article published in Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 692-706, 2020. doi : 10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854. Defence and Peace Economics is available online at : http://www.tandfonline.comloi/gdpe20.Geopolitical risks (GPRs)Oil marketsTime-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR)Oil supplyDemand shocksPostprint Article