Gupta, RanganPierdzioch, ChristianWong, Wing-Keung2022-02-182022-02-182021-10-17Gupta, R.; Pierdzioch, C.; Wong,W.-K. A Note on Forecasting the Historical Realized Variance of Oil-Price Movements: The Role of Gold-to-Silver and Gold-to-Platinum Price Ratios. Energies 2021, 14, 6775. https://DOI.org/10.3390/en14206775.1996-1073 (online)10.3390/en14206775http://hdl.handle.net/2263/84048We examine the predictive value of gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios, as proxies for global risks affecting the realized variance (RV) of oil-price movements, using monthly data over the longest available periods of 1915:01–2021:03 and 1968:01–2021:03, respectively. Using the two ratios, we find statistically significant evidence of in-sample predictability for increases in RV for both ratios. This finding also translates into statistically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains derived from these two ratios for RV. Given the importance of real-time forecasts of the volatility of oil-price movements, our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.en© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.Gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratiosRealized variance of oil priceForecastingArticle