Reza Yeganegi, MohammadHassani, HosseinGupta, Rangan2023-10-052023-10-052023-11Reza Yeganegi, M.,Hassani, H., & Gupta, R. (2023). The ENSO cycle and forecastability of global inflation and output growth: Evidence from standard and mixed-frequency multivariate singular spectrum analyses. Journal of Forecasting, 42(7), 1690–1707. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2982.0277-6693 (print)1099-131X (online)10.1002/for.2982http://hdl.handle.net/2263/92715DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.In this paper, the role of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), measured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI), is used to formally forecast the inflation and GDP growth rates of the United States, advanced (excluding the United States) and emerging countries, as well as the world economy (barring the United States). We rely on univariate and multivariate singular spectrum analyses (SSA), as well as mixed-frequency version of the latter since the EQSOI is monthly, while GDP is available only at quarterly frequency unlike monthly inflation rates. We find statistically significant evidence of the ability of the EQSOI in forecasting inflation and GDP growth rates of the four economic blocs, though there are exceptions in terms of forecasting gains associated with inflation rate of emerging economies and the growth rate of the United States. Our results have important implications for policymakers.en© 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the preprint version of the following article : The ENSO cycle and forecastability of global inflation and output growth: Evidence from standard and mixed-frequency multivariate singular spectrum analyses. Journal of Forecasting, 42(7), 1690–1707. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2982. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/for.Continuous wavelet transformForecastibilityEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)GDP growthGross domestic product (GDP)InflationMixed-frequency multivariateSingular spectrum analyses (SSA)Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI)SDG-08: Decent work and economic growthPreprint Article