Grevenbrock, NilsGroneck, MaxLudwig, AlexanderZimper, Alexander2022-04-062022-04-062021-05-02Grevenbrock, N., Groneck, M., Ludwig, A. et al. 2021, 'Cognition, optimism, and the formation of age‐dependent survival beliefs', International Economic Review, vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 887-918.0020-6598 (print)1468-2354 (online)10.1111/iere.12497http://hdl.handle.net/2263/84809This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse Sshaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.en© 2020 The Authors. International Economic Review published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.Psychological biasesCognitive weaknessSurvival chancesOld ageSubjective survival beliefs (SSBs)Article