Clance, M.W. (Matthew)Gupta, RanganWohar, Mark E.2019-01-292019Matthew W. Clance, Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar (2019) Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data, Applied Economics Letters, 26:16, 1317-1321, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2018.1558332.1350-4851 (print)1466-4291 (online)10.1080/13504851.2018.1558332http://hdl.handle.net/2263/68295This paper uses a panel of 17 advanced countries over the annual period of 1899–2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors based on a logit model, we find that while aggregate geopolitical risks do not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhance the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same.en© 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an electronic version of an article published in Applied Economics Letters, vol. 26, no. 16, pp. 1317-1321, 2019. doi : 10.1080/13504851.2018.1558332. Applied Economics Letters is available online at : http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rael20.Advanced economiesGeopolitical risks (GPRs)Logit modelPanel dataRecessionsPostprint Article