Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement

Domingo, Nina G.G.Fiore, Arlene M.Lamarque, Jean-FrancoisKinney, Patrick L.Jiang, LeiwenGasparrini, AntonioBreitner, SusanneLavigne, EricMadureira, JoanaMasselot, PierreDa Silva, Susana das Neves PereiraSheng Ng, Chris FookKyselý, JanGuo, YumingTong, ShiluKan, HaidongUrban, AlešOrru, HansMaasikmets, MarekPascal, MathildeKatsouyanni, KleaSamoli, EvangeliaScortichini, MatteoStafoggia, MassimoHashizume, MasahiroAlahmad, BarrakDiaz, Magali HurtadoDe la Cruz Valencia, CésarScovronick, NoahGarland, Rebecca M.Kim, HoLee, WhanheeTobias, AurelioÍñiguez, CarmenForsberg, BertilÅström, ChristoferRagettli, Martina S.Guo, Yue LeonPan, Shih-ChunColistro, ValentinaBell, Michelle L.Zanobetti, AntonellaSchwartz, JoelSchneider, AlexandraVicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.Chen, Kai2024-02-132024-02Domingo, N.G.G., Fiore, A.M., Lamarque, J.-F. et al. 2024, 'Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement', One Earth, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 325-335, doi : 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001.2590-3330 (print)2590-3322 (online)10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001http://hdl.handle.net/2263/94520DATA AND CODE AVAILABILITY : The projected data on temperature and ozone concentration can be obtained from the CMIP6 database (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/). The projected population data can be obtained from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, Global 1-km Downscaled Population Base Year and Projection Grids Based on the SSPs, v1.01 (2000 – 2100): https://doi.org/10.7927/ q7z9-9r69. The historical baseline mortality and population data can be obtained from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2019 Report (https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/). Code used to generate the results are publicly available on Github (https://github. com/CHENlab-Yale/MCC_FutureO3). Any additional information required for reanalyzing the data reported in this paper is available from the lead contact upon reasonable request.Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.en© 2024 Elsevier Inc. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Nutrition. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in One Earth, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 325-335, 2024. doi : 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001.Air qualityOzone-related acute mortalityDiverse geographic areasClimate scenariosCMIP6 multi-model ensemblesSDG-11: Sustainable cities and communitiesOzone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris AgreementPostprint Article