Gupta, RanganJaichand, YuvanaPierdzioch, ChristianVan Eyden, Renee2024-05-312024-05-312023-07Gupta, R.; Jaichand, Y.; Pierdzioch, C.; van Eyden, R. Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating. Mathematics 2023, 11, 2964. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11132964.2227-7390 (online)10.3390/math11132964http://hdl.handle.net/2263/96312DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: Data will be made available upon request.Studying the question of whether macroeconomic predictors play a role in forecasting stock-market volatility has a long and significant tradition in the empirical finance literature. We went beyond the earlier literature in that we studied whether the presidential approval rating can be used as a single-variable substitute in place of standard macroeconomic predictors when forecasting stock-market volatility in the United States (US). Political-economy considerations imply that the presidential approval rating should reflect fluctuations in macroeconomic predictors and, hence, may absorb or even improve on the predictive value for stock-market volatility of the latter. We studied whether the presidential approval rating has predictive value out-of-sample for realized stock-market volatility and, if so, which types of investors benefit from using it.en© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.Stock-market volatilityMacroeconomic predictorsPresidential approval ratingForecastingSDG-08: Decent work and economic growthArticle