The effects of uncertainty on economic conditions across US states : the role of climate risks

Abstract

We analyze the impact of uncertainty on the Economic Conditions Index (ECI) of the 50 US states in a panel data set-up, over the weekly period of the 3rd week of April 1987 to the 4th week of March 2023. Using impulse response functions (IRFs) from a linear local projections (LP) model, we show that uncertainty, as captured by the stochastic volatility (SV) of the ECIs, negatively impacts ECI in a statistically significant manner. More importantly, using a nonlinear LP model, the IRFs reveal that the adverse effect of uncertainty is significantly stronger under the high-regime of climate risks when compared to the low-regime of the same. Understandably, our results have important policy implications.