Sensitivity analysis applied to a selection method of cogeneration systems based on multiples criteria

Abstract

Paper presented at the 7th International Conference on Heat Transfer, Fluid Mechanics and Thermodynamics, Turkey, 19-21 July, 2010.This paper studies the selection of a cogeneration system by using a multicriteria methodology involving economical, technical, thermodynamic and environmental issues. The methodology allows obtaining a ranked set of alternatives by solving a discrete optimization problem based on the Tchebycheff metric. However the parameter values and assumptions of any model are subject to changes and uncertainties. Consequently, the purpose of the paper is to investigate the impacts of some potential variations in the input variables, on the conclusions of the methodology. A study was conducted through a sensitivity analysis by means of an experimental design, consisting of the combinations of parameters which were varied from the levels at which they were set. The results shows how sensitive the solution is in the face of different parameter values as well as under what circumstances the solution would change. In addition the comparison of the sensitivity of some selecting criteria for several cogeneration sizing methods is presented.