Investigating the influence of present and projected climate on the livelihood of small-scale farmers in the uThungulu District Municipality, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa

Abstract

Several studies have been conducted globally with regards to climate variability and change. A gap has been identified to link the impact of present and projected climate on the livelihood of small-scale farmers in South Africa. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of present and projected climate on the livelihood of small-scale farmers in the uThungulu District Municipality, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. Mean monthly composite of rainfall and temperature from observation data obtained (1997-2015) from South African Weather Service (SAWS) characterizes uThungulu District Municipality as having two distinct seasons, a wet season from October to March and a dry season from April to September. For temperature a small dispersion with slight positive skewness in dataset was observed. Meanwhile, for rainfall a large dispersion with negative skewness was observed. The community in this region is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture making the small-scale farmers vulnerable to climate variability and change. A case study on Ntambanana, one of the six local municipalities of uThungulu District Municipality was considered in which analyses of small-scale farmers perceptions of the past and present climate changes in relation to their livelihood was profiled. Most small-scale farmers’ households were female headed between the ages of 18-59 years. In the last 10-20 years, small-scale farmers observed a change in crop farming due to changes in rainfall patterns and less harvest due to high temperatures. The results from small-scale farmers’ perceptions correlate to the meteorological data in which long-term linear trends show that temperature maximum is increasing at the rate of 0.0298°C/yr and temperature minimum decreasing at a rate of 0.0629°C/yr. On the other hand, long-term linear trends for rainfall also showed a decrease rate of 1.5887mm/yr. From the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) analysis, 11 out of 19 years had below normal average rainfall. Those years with below average rainfall were also characterized by late onset of rainfall and early rainfall cessation. Some of those years were also associated with El Nino phenomenon which brings dry conditions in South Africa. Two CMIP 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) were considered for climate projections and those were GFD and Nor. These models were selected because they simulated proximity results to observations. Downscaling based on Quantile Mapping (QM) using three tests (PTF, SSPLINL and QUANT) showed that the SSPLINL and QUANT were better methods to employ when conducting impact studies using GCMs. Changes in projected hydrological processes were also investigated, results showed that uThungulu will have less drought events meanwhile the severity, magnitude and duration will be higher. The study concluded three things (1) uThungulu District Municipality has experienced substantial inter-annual variations in the past and present climate, (2) small-scale farmers perception of climate corroborate meteorological variables analyzed (3) uThungulu District is prone to extreme climate events and projected climate change and extreme events will result in the livelihood of poor communities such as Ntambanana to be more vulnerable because of limited coping mechanism and resources.