A fully satellite-driven workflow for hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems : integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and reanalysis model

Abstract

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼5% of the 2 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R2 = 0.86). A ∼26 min phase lag, determined using a lag-correlation analysis, reduces the TPXO–SWOT RMSE from 0.18 m to 0.11 m, indicating that phase differences explain some of the mismatch, with remaining differences likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.