Complex Technology Roadmap Development in the Context of Developing Countries

Abstract

Technology roadmaps are useful for much longer technology planning periods in which past performance might not determine the future. They are also very useful in translating strategies into implementable actions, with clear targets and timelines. A growing number of organisations, industry associations, national governments and international agencies are also using technology roadmaps for future technology planning and analysis.

This research responds to the complexities associated with technology roadmap development in South Africa and other developing countries. It seeks to investigate whether the predominant literature on technology roadmaps and technology roadmapping is suitable for developing countries or if the existing frameworks need to be customised to suit framework conditions for developing countries. The following are the main research questions: 1) what are the unique framework conditions for innovation in developing countries and 2) what is a suitable technology roadmapping framework for developing countries? The research sub-questions associated with the first research question are 1) what are the main priorities for innovation in South Africa and 2) what are the actual/ perceived innovation competitive advantages for South Africa? The research sub-questions associated with the second research question are: 1) what is the nature and characteristics of technology roadmaps in South Africa and 2) what are the critical factors for successful technology roadmaps in South Africa?

Relevant literature reviewed in this research includes knowledge evolution of the technology roadmapping field, nature and impact of emerging technologies as well as technology management in developing countries. The mainstream technology roadmapping literature is useful in guiding technology roadmapping efforts in developing countries, although the intention of this study was also to determine its ‘fitness for purpose’. A literature review led to the development of the theoretical framework for technology roadmapping in developing countries. The key elements of this framework are the multilevel perspective analysis based on complex systems theory, transition management theory and leapfrogging as technology catch-up strategy.

The methodology adopted for this research was informed by a theoretical framework developed and a literature review. The research design is based on post-positivism research philosophy (realism perspective). As a result, both a quantitative survey and qualitative interviews were used to collect data. Data collection tools used were online quantitative survey as well as semi-structured qualitative interviews. The information collected from qualitative interviews along with secondary data (documents analysis) were used to assist in interpreting patterns of responses received from quantitative survey data.

The five deduced analytical propositions regarding the innovation dynamics in South Africa, as a case for developing countries, address the key issues to consider in transitioning the complex innovation systems. Building from the findings regarding the innovation dynamics within the developing countries, the additional five propositions provide some foundation and principles for technology roadmapping in developing countries. These incorporate usage of the third generation technology roadmaps in the developing countries, importance of timing the window of opportunity, the recommended usage of scenario planning, a balance between involvement of stakeholders from dominant product-technology platform and those who are transition-oriented and the importance of monitoring and updating the transition-based technology roadmaps.

The ten analytical propositions deduced were further tested and demonstrated through the analysis of sociotechnical transitions taking place within the energy, mining and water sectors in South Africa. The common innovation landscape factors that are incorporated for long-term technology planning in these sectors are the economic climate, government policy and public discourse. All three plans also begin with a transition phase that entails predevelopment of multiple emerging technologies that are characteristic of the third generation technology roadmaps.