The discounted money value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in Spain

Abstract

PURPOSE – To estimate the discounted money value of human lives lost (DMVHL) due to COVID-19 in Spain. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH – The study employs the human capital approach to estimate the DMVHL (assuming Spain’s life expectancy of 83 years and a 3%discount rate) of the 20,453 human lives lost in Spain from COVID-19 as of 19 April 2020. Sensitivity analysis was conducted alternately assuming (a) 5% and 10% discount rate; and (b) global life expectancy of 72 years, and the world’s highest life expectancy of 87.1 years. FINDINGS – The 20,453 human lives lost due to COVID-19 had a total DMVHL of Int$ 9,629,234,112, and an average of Int$ 470,798 per human life lost. Alternate re-estimation of the economic model with a 5%and 10% discount rates led to 19.8% and 47.4% reductions in the DMVHL, respectively. Re-calculation of the economic model using the global life expectancy of 72 years, while holding the discount rate constant at 3%, diminished the DMVHL by 41%. While the re-run of the same model using the world’s highest life expectancy of 87.1 years instead, it increased the DMVHL by 18%. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS – The study omits the value of health systems inputs used in preventing, diagnosing and treating COVID-19 cases; and the negative impact of COVID-19 on the agriculture, education, finance, manufacturing, travel, tourism, and trade sectors. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS – There is a need to use this kind of evidence to advocate for increased investments into the strengthening of the national health system, IHR capacities, and coverage of safe water and sanitation facilities. ORIGINALITY/VALUE – In Spain, no other study had attempted to estimate the net present value of human lives lost from COVID-19.