The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach

Abstract

Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O3, with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O3 impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O3 tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss.