Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
| dc.contributor.author | Gupta, Rangan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Sheng, Xin | |
| dc.contributor.author | Balcilar, Mehmet | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ji, Qiang | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-05-20T07:39:06Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-05-20T07:39:06Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-07 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs. | en_US |
| dc.description.department | Economics | en_US |
| dc.description.librarian | hj2022 | en_US |
| dc.description.uri | http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl | en_US |
| dc.identifier.citation | Gupta, R., Sheng, X., Balcilar, M. et al. 2021, 'Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth', Finance Research Letters, vol. 41, art. 101823, doi : 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1544-6123 (print) | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1544-6131 (online) | |
| dc.identifier.other | 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/85600 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
| dc.rights | © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the submitted version of a work that was accepted for publication in Finance Research Letters. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms are not reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Finance Research Letters, vol. 41, art. 101823, 2021. doi : 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823. | en_US |
| dc.subject | Pandemics | en_US |
| dc.subject | Uncertainty | en_US |
| dc.subject | Output growth | en_US |
| dc.subject | Time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) | en_US |
| dc.title | Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth | en_US |
| dc.type | Preprint Article | en_US |