A retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambia

dc.contributor.authorMubamba, C.
dc.contributor.authorRamsay, G.
dc.contributor.authorAbolnik, Celia
dc.contributor.authorDautu, G.
dc.contributor.authorGummow, Bruce
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-17T10:21:02Z
dc.date.issued2016-10
dc.description.abstractNewcastle disease (ND) is a highly infectious disease of poultry that seriously impacts on food security and livelihoods of livestock farmers and communities in tropical regions of the world. ND is a constant problem in the eastern province of Zambia which has more than 740 000 rural poultry. Very few studies give a situational analysis of the disease that can be used for disease control planning in the region. With this background in mind, a retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using Newcastle Disease data submitted to the eastern province headquarters for the period from 1989 to 2014. The study found that Newcastle Disease cases in eastern Zambia followed a seasonal and cyclic pattern with peaks in the hot dry season (Overall Seasonal Index 1.1) as well as cycles every three years with an estimated provincial incidence range of 0.16 to 1.7% per year. Annual trends were compared with major intervention policies implemented by the Zambian government, which often received donor support from the international community during the study period. Aid delivered through government programmes appeared to have no major impact on ND trends between 1989 and 2014 and reasons for this are discussed. There were apparent spatial shifts in districts with outbreaks over time which could be as a result of veterinary interventions chasing outbreaks rather than implementing uniform control. Data was also fitted to a predictive time series model for ND which could be used to plan for future ND control. Time series modelling showed an increasing trend in ND annual incidence over 25 years if existing interventions continue. A different approach to controlling the disease is needed if this trend is to be halted. Conversely, the positive trend may be a function of improved reporting by farmers as a result of more awareness of the disease.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentProduction Animal Studiesen_ZA
dc.description.embargo2017-10-31
dc.description.librarianhb2017en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipAustralian Awards (OASIS ID: STOOOK8), James Cook University, Australia with contributions from the National Research Foundation in Pretoria, South Africa.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/prevetmeden_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMubamba, C, Ramsay, G, Abolnik, C, Dautu, G & Gummow, B 2016, 'A retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambia', Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 133, pp. 97-107.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0167-5877 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1873-1716 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.09.017
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/59466
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Preventive Veterinary Medicine. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 133, pp. 97-107, 2016. doi : 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.09.017.en_ZA
dc.subjectRural poultryen_ZA
dc.subjectTrendsen_ZA
dc.subjectModellingen_ZA
dc.subjectNewcastle disease (ND)en_ZA
dc.subject.otherVeterinary science articles SDG-01en_ZA
dc.subject.otherVeterinary science articles SDG-02en_ZA
dc.subject.otherSDG-02: Zero hunger
dc.subject.otherSDG-01: No poverty
dc.titleA retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambiaen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

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