Bovine tuberculosis in Northern Ireland : risk factors associated with time from post-outbreak test to subsequent herd breakdown

dc.contributor.authorDoyle, L.P.
dc.contributor.authorGordon, A.W.
dc.contributor.authorAbernethy, D.A. (Darrell)
dc.contributor.authorStevens, K.
dc.date.accessioned2014-10-03T12:51:55Z
dc.date.available2014-10-03T12:51:55Z
dc.date.issued2014-09
dc.description.abstractCompulsory bovine tuberculosis testing has been implemented since 1959 in NorthernIreland. Initial rapid progress in the eradication of the disease was followed by a situationwhere disease levels tended to fluctuate around a low level. This study explores recru-descence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Northern Ireland herds by assessing risk factorsassociated with time from the six-month post-outbreak skin test until a further herd break-down. Bovine herds (n = 3377) were recruited in 2002 and 2003 and their survival analysedusing Kaplan–Meier survival estimates and a Cox proportional hazards model, with follow-up extending to August 2008. Exclusion criteria applied for study entry were bTB infection ina contiguous herd, changing of post restriction test to one of a higher risk status or chronicinfection. Chronic infection was defined as any situation where disclosure preceded thepost-outbreak test by two years or more. The application of these exclusion criteria meantthat herds recruited to the study were largely cleared of infection and not directly con-tiguous to other infected herds. Of the 3377 herds, 1402 (41.5%) suffered a further herdbreakdown before the end of follow-up. Median survival time was 582 days (interquartilerange = 336–1002 days). Breakdown severity (defined as the number of Single Intrader-mal Comparative Tuberculin Test (SICTT) reactors at disclosure test), local bTB prevalence,herd size and type were identified as significant risk factors (p < 0.05), as was the purchaseof higher numbers (n > 27.38 per year) of cattle. Consistent with other studies this workshows bTB confirmation to not be predictive of a future herd breakdown. This work showsbTB history as not being a risk factor for a future breakdown. This result could be reflectiveof the exclusion criteria used in the study, which may have selected for incidents wherehistorical status was of less importance.en_US
dc.description.librarianhb2014en_US
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/prevetmeden_US
dc.identifier.citationDoyle, LP, Gordon, AW, Abernethy, DA & Stevens, K 2014, 'Bovine tuberculosis in Northern Ireland : risk factors associated with time from post-outbreak test to subsequent herd breakdown', Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 116, no. 1-2, pp. 47-55.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0167-5877 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1873-1716 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.06.010
dc.identifier.other21638520700
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/42231
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.relation.requiresAdobe Acrobat Readeren
dc.rights© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Preventive Veterinary Medicine. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 116, no. 1-2, pp. 47-55, 2014. doi : 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.06.010.en_US
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectMycobacterium bovisen_US
dc.subjectBreakdown severityen_US
dc.subjectKaplan-Meieren_US
dc.subjectCox proportional hazardsen_US
dc.subjectBovine tuberculosisen_US
dc.titleBovine tuberculosis in Northern Ireland : risk factors associated with time from post-outbreak test to subsequent herd breakdownen_US
dc.typePostprint Articleen_US

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