Some mathematical tools for modelling malaria : a subjective survey

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a brief survey of mathematical modelling of malaria and how it is used to understand the transmission and progression of the disease and design strategies for its control to support public health interventions and decisionmaking. We discuss some of the past and present contributions of mathematical modelling of malaria, including the recent development of modelling the transmission-blocking drugs. We also comment on the complexity of the malaria dynamics and, in particular, on its multiscale character with its challenges and opportunities. We illustrate the discussion by presenting a curve fitting using a 95% confidence interval for the South African data for malaria from the years 2001-2018 and provide projections for the number of malaria cases and deaths up to the year 2025.