Formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making : an assessment of corporate reasoning

Abstract

PURPOSE : The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH : An overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context. FINDINGS : The findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported, it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership-related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS : Empirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which supportive tools and technologies should be used for scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS : The study expands upon previous insights into the formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making based on an emerging market context. ORIGINALITY/VALUE : This study contributes to understanding the value of scenario-planning in complex contexts that require strategic adaptability and offers a hands-on toolkit and shortlist of assessment criteria to conceptualize the organizational reasoning and scholarly framing of formal, informal or non-scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.