An institutional evaluation of declining voter turnout in South African general elections, 1999-2019

Abstract

This thesis introduces a new level of analysis in the study of voter turnout in South Africa. Current discourse focuses largely on socio-economic and demographic variables, while the influence of institutional factors is under-researched. In response, this study examines the impact of the electoral system and electoral laws on voter turnout in South Africa. It is commonly argued that a Proportional Representation (PR) system stimulates voter turnout due to the principle of proportionality, the existence of multiple political parties and voter efficacy. However, South Africa has recorded a decline in voter turnout between 1999 and 2019. Although declining turnout is a global phenomenon, it remains an important area of enquiry, particularly in an emerging democracy such as South Africa. Through a triangulation of the existing literature, Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) Voter Participation Survey data and Afrobarometer survey data, this study finds that, similar to other parts of the world, multipartyism has depressed turnout – not because of the sheer number of political parties represented in Parliament or contesting elections, but because the electoral system led to one-party dominance. Furthermore, voter efficacy is also declining, while disillusionment and apathy are increasing. This study contributes to the broader field of voter behaviour and argues that the decline in voter turnout in South Africa results from a combination of attitudinal and institutional factors.