Quantification of the incidence and financial implications of stock theft in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Abstract

Stock theft poses a significant and persistent challenge to the agricultural sector in South Africa. This widespread issue has severe consequences for farmers, including financial losses, emotional distress, and the inability to maintain sustainable agricultural practices. The objective of the study was to quantify the incidence and financial implications of stock theft in Eastern Cape Province (ECP), South Africa. The retrospective data (2018 to 2024) of stock theft was obtained from the provincial police stock theft unit, captured in Excel, transformed, and analysed using R Studio 4.2.2 (version 2022) for statistical analysis. The Alfred Nzo district, with a total of 6427 (21.5%) reported cases, experienced the highest number of cases of stock theft reported amongst the eight districts of the ECP in the period from 2018 to 2024 financial year. Sheep (OR = 1.03; P < 0.01) and goat (Odds Ratio = 1.00; P > 0.40) had a higher likelihood of being stolen, and with no recoveries after being stolen (Odds Ratio = 0.99; P > 0.93) and (Odds Ratio = 1.01; P > 0.119). In the current study, cattle amounted to a loss of 399 million rands (21,904,418.00 USD), with 30,816 cattle being stolen. The impact of stock theft has far-reaching ramifications for the country’s economy and the sustainability of current farming ventures. Information obtained from this study could assist stakeholders in being empowered to make informed decisions, allocate resources effectively, and develop targeted interventions to combat stock theft.