Oil price uncertainty and savings in South Africa

dc.contributor.authorDiksha, Dave
dc.contributor.authorAye, Goodness Chioma
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-19T10:00:36Z
dc.date.issued2015-09
dc.description.abstractOil prices have become increasingly important to determine indicators such as inflation; this in turn affects savings and investments. This paper investigates the impact of the volatility of oil prices on savings in South Africa using quarterly data covering the period 1960 to 2014. The study used the GARCH-in-mean VAR model. This model also provides a way of examining the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil prices on savings. The outcome of this study proves that oil price uncertainty which is measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price affects South Africa’s savings in a negative way. The responses of savings to a positive and negative oil price shocks is symmetric in both direction and magnitude.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_ZA
dc.description.embargo2016-09-30
dc.description.librarianhb2016en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1753-0237en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationDiksha, D & Aye, GC 2015, 'Oil price uncertainty and savings in South Africa', OPEC Energy Review, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 285-297.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1753-0229 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1753-0237 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1111/opec.12049
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/52057
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherWileyen_ZA
dc.rights© 2015 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : Oil price uncertainty and savings in South Africa, OPEC Energy Review, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 285-297, 2015, doi :10.1111/opec.12049. The definite version is available at : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1753-0237.en_ZA
dc.subjectOil priceen_ZA
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_ZA
dc.subjectSavingsen_ZA
dc.subjectSouth Africa (SA)en_ZA
dc.titleOil price uncertainty and savings in South Africaen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

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