Natural resource modeling : allowing for inconstant probability of detection and frequency measures of violation within dynamic deterrence fishery models

Abstract

The dynamic deterrence model (DDM) represents an analytical framework widely used for analyzing compliance with fishery regulations aiming for sustainable fishery management. However, applications of the DDM have so far been limited to the case of constant probability of detection that assumes independence of the length of time to detection. This paper modifies the DDM to allow for more flexible and broader specification by introducing, for the first time, two important variables to the supply of offences function, namely evasion activity and enforcement efforts and accommodating inconstant probability of detection specifications. Determinants of probability of detection are specified and important potential extensions of the modified DDM are discussed in this paper. The relative magnitude of the effects of each of these determinants on probability of detection, however, remains an important empirical question that requires further investigation for prioritization of policy actions.