A political and economic analysis of lowering carbon emissions in South Africa

Abstract

With the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol drawing to a close and the second period looming, industrialised countries are starting to question the magnitude of emissions released by developing countries along with the lack of emission reduction targets for these countries. This caused some developing countries to start focusing on production- and consumption-based accounting of emissions. South Africa as the largest emitter of carbon emissions on the African continent and in the top twenty worldwide is no exception. In this paper an overview of South Africa’s export and import emissions over 10 primary economic sectors together with the breakdown into the 57 sub-sectors were examined. The export partners and the monetary value of exports to these respective partners in the identified carbon intensive sectors are studied, and attention is drawn to the New Growth Path for Economic Development vis a vis the voluntary commitment of the South African government to lower carbon emissions by 34 and 42 percent by 2020 and 2025 respectively. Results show that emissions exports in South Africa total 32 MtCO2, while emissions imports total 14 MtCO2 providing a surplus of 18 MtCO2 in export emissions demonstrating that the country exports more emissions than it imports. The identified sectors that are carbon intensive also represent high levels of exports as a result of large volumes of goods being produced in-house and exported for foreign consumption. This is further aided by electricity subsidies making final products more competitive in the international market, large investments by multinational companies and export-oriented policies providing a favourable environment. In the Industry sector, as labelled by the South African Department of Energy, it is found that a significant percentage of goods produced are for the export market. The two carbon intensive sectors from the primary sector, Industry, are motor vehicles and parts and machinery and equipment. Emissions exports from these two sectors account for approximately 25 percent of total export emissions. In both the motor vehicles and parts and machinery and equipment sectors, Germany and the United States of America are identified as the two top industrialised export partners. Results indicate that a decrease in emissions without sufficient investments in cleaner technology could have detrimental implications for the South African economy and the need exists for industrialised trade partners to invest in cleaner technology and/or to account for export emissions when constructing emissions inventories.