Modeling the transmission dynamics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) with latent immigrants

Abstract

A new deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is proposed and fully analyzed. The presented model exhibits a unique endemic equilibrium and there is no infection free equilibrium due to constant influx of latent immigrants. An invasion threshold parameter is derived and stability analysis of the full model and its two special cases is carried out. The impact of quarantine and isolation is assessed via threshold analysis approach, while the impact of immigration on the disease prevalence is discussed. Indeed, we showed that MERS-CoV can be controlled by quick isolation or monitoring close contacts and quarantining of suspected latent immigrants. Further, numerical simulations of the model reveal that the disease can be contained if these preventive measures are combined with high reduction of immigration rate.