Presidential approval ratings and stock market performance in Latin America

dc.contributor.authorJaichand, Yuvana
dc.contributor.authorVan Eyden, Renee
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.emailrenee.vaneyden@up.ac.za
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-02T12:39:12Z
dc.date.available2025-10-02T12:39:12Z
dc.date.issued2025-09
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the time-varying causality between presidential approval (PAR) and stock market performance, measured by stock returns and realised volatility, focussing on four prominent Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, from 1990M01 to 2016M05. We use a time-varying causality test, which is robust to structural breaks, to uncover a bidirectional causal relationship between PAR and stock market performance. Our results remain robust when controlling for macroeconomic conditions, PAR in other Latin American countries and US PAR. Our analysis is extended to include the bond market, identifying a significant bivariate causal relationship between PAR and bond market performance.
dc.description.departmentEconomics
dc.description.librarianhj2025
dc.description.sdgSDG-08: Decent work and economic growth
dc.description.urihttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14679485
dc.identifier.citationJaichand, Y., Van Eyden, R. & Gupta, R. 2025, 'Presidential approval ratings and stock market performance in Latin America', Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol. 72, no. 4, art. e70011, pp. 1-21, doi : 10.1111/sjpe.70011.
dc.identifier.issn0036-9292 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1467-9485 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1111/sjpe.70011
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/104594
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rights© 2025 The Author(s). Scottish Journal of Political Economy published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Scottish Economic Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
dc.subjectPresidential approval ratings
dc.subjectTime-varying causality
dc.subjectStock returns
dc.subjectStock market volatility
dc.titlePresidential approval ratings and stock market performance in Latin America
dc.typeArticle

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