Population changes in a whale breeding ground revealed by citizen science noninvasive genetics

Abstract

Historical exploitation, and a combination of current anthropogenic impacts, such as climate change and habitat degradation, impact the population dynamics of marine mammalian megafauna. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) are large cetaceans recovering from hunting, whose reproductive and population growth rate appear to be impacted by climate change. We apply noninvasive genetic methods to monitor southern right whale (E. australis, SRW) and test the application of noninvasive genetics to minimise the observer effects on the population. Our aim is to describe population structure, and interdecadal and interannual changes to assess species status in the Great Acceleration period of Anthropocene. As a basis for population genetic analyses, we collected samples from sloughed skin during post-migration epidermal moult. Considering the exploration-exploitation dilemma, we collaborated with whale watching companies, as part of a citizen science approach and to reduce ad hoc logistic operations and biopsy equipment. We used mitochondrial and microsatellite data and population genetic tools. We report for the first time the genetic composition and differentiation of the Namibian portion of the range. Population genetic parameters suggest that South Africa hosts the largest population. This corresponds with higher estimates of current gene flow from Africa compared to older samples. We have observed considerable interannual variation in population density at the breeding ground and an interdecadal shift in genetic variability, evidenced by an increase in the point estimate inbreeding. Clustering analyses confirmed differentiation between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific, presumably originating during the ice ages. We show that population monitoring of large whales, essential for their conservation management, is feasible using noninvasive sampling within non-scientific platforms. Observed patterns are concurrent to changes of movement ecology and decline in reproductive success of the South African population, probably reflecting a large-scale restructuring of pelagic marine food webs.