Implications for transitioning to an alternative fuel bus fleet:A cost and climate impact perspective

Abstract

Since the inception of the Paris Agreement in 2015, commitments to a more sustainable long-term climate change outcome have taken traction in both the public and private sector. This can be seen in changes in international norms and standards, local policy and legislation, adoption of green technologies and utilisation of sustainable sourcing and materials. In the transport sector, these changes have taken the form of efficiency improvements in existing technologies including internal combustion engine vehicles, the introduction of electric and hydrogen powered vehicles, policies incentivising the ownership of electric vehicles, access to financing through climate funds and many others. For public entities responsible for ensuring viable public transport, the question of transitioning to alternative fuels is now a pertinent one. This paper examines the anticipated cost and climate impact associated with the transition to an alternative fuel bus fleet in the South African context. This is done through estimating the total cost of ownership of various bus types and demonstrating the impact on cashflows and budgeting for given scenarios. Moreover, it estimates the reduction in tailpipe emissions associated with diversifying the bus fleet mix, particularly in the context of improved emission of internal combustion engine vehicles. Lastly, it considers the economic context of South Africa, and the balance of committing to decarbonisation strategies, while addressing infrastructure and other needs.