Global geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economies

dc.contributor.authorBouri, Elie
dc.contributor.authorGabauer, David
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.emailrangan.gupta@up.ac.zaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-14T11:36:32Z
dc.date.available2023-09-14T11:36:32Z
dc.date.issued2023-10
dc.descriptionDATA AVAILABILITY : Data will be available upon request.en_US
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we examine the spillovers across monthly inflation rates (measured by the CPI) of advanced North American and European economies. Using data covering the period from May 1963 to November 2022 and a time-varying spillover approach, we show that the total spillover index across the inflation rates spiked during the Russo-Ukrainian war, exceeding its previous peak shown during the 1970s energy crisis. Notably, we apply a quantile-on-quantile regression and reveal that changes in the total spillover index are positively associated with lagged changes in the global geopolitical risk (GPR) index. More specifically, changes in the GPR index are positively impacting all future changes in the inflation spillover index, whereas the GPR Acts index is only positively associated with large future changes in the inflation spillover index. Given that rising levels of inflation are posing risks to the financial system and economic growth, these findings should matter to the central banks and policymakers in advanced economies.en_US
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_US
dc.description.librarianhj2023en_US
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribafen_US
dc.identifier.citationBouri, E., Gabauer, D., Gupta, R. et al. 2023, 'Global geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economies', Research in International Business and Finance, vol. 66, art. , pp. 1-12, doi : 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0275-5319
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/92280
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.rights© 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was submitted for publication in Research in International Business and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms are not reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Research in International Business and Finance, vol. 66, art. , pp. 1-12, doi : 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048.en_US
dc.subjectConsumer price indices (CPI)en_US
dc.subjectConsumer Inflation spilloversen_US
dc.subjectGeopolitical risk (GPR)en_US
dc.subjectDynamic connectednessen_US
dc.subjectTVP-VARen_US
dc.subjectTime-varying parameter (TVP)
dc.subjectVector autoregressive (VAR)
dc.subjectSDG-08: Decent work and economic growth
dc.titleGlobal geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economiesen_US
dc.typePreprint Articleen_US

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