On exchange-rate movements and gold-price fluctuations : evidence for gold-producing countries from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test

Abstract

The links between exchange-rate movements and gold-price fluctuations have been extensively studied in earlier research using various econometric techniques. Our contribution to this research is that we apply a novel nonparametric causality-inquantiles test to study the causal links between exchange-rate movements and goldprice fluctuations. We use daily data for the sample period 1994–2015 for major goldproducing countries to illustrate the novel test. We find that, for the majority of countries, gold-price fluctuations help to predict in sample the returns and the volatility of exchange rates. While exchange-rate movements predict in sample gold volatility, they do not predict gold returns.