A cumulative risk and sustainability index for pavements

dc.contributor.authorBlaauw, Sheldon Alfred
dc.contributor.authorMaina, J.W. (James)
dc.contributor.authorGrobler, Louis J.
dc.contributor.authorVisser, Alex T.
dc.contributor.emailalex.visser@up.ac.zaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-06T07:10:46Z
dc.date.issued2022-04
dc.description.abstractPavement sustainability is measured using various methodologies which often focus on only certain aspects of sustainability. Methods to quantify and unify holistic sustainability in terms of economic, environmental and social consequences are lacking. In previous papers, the major findings of the contribution of construction, maintenance and use to pavement sustainability were presented. The objective of this paper is to present a method of quantification using a risk and sustainability index that can compare the design and maintenance options of pavement systems. The model utilises Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations applied to a conceptualised influence diagram to determine the probability of sustainability using a cumulative approach. Previously reported results are provided which form the basis of the model, detailing economic, environmental and social results of pavement alternatives, followed by the development of a probability model to quantify holistic pavement sustainability. In conclusion, even though sustainability is complex, simplification through simulation is achievable.en_US
dc.description.departmentCivil Engineeringen_US
dc.description.embargo2024-02-26
dc.description.librarianhj2022en_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.elsevier.com/locate/trden_US
dc.identifier.citationBlaauw, S.A., Maina, J.W., Grobler, L.J. et al. 2022, 'A cumulative risk and sustainability index for pavements', Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 105, art. 103221, pp. 1-16, doi : 10.1016/j.trd.2022.103221.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1361-9209 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1879-2340 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.trd.2022.103221
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/87081
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.rights© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 105, art. 103221, pp. 1-16, 2021. doi : 10.1016/j.trd.2022.103221.en_US
dc.subjectLife cycle approachen_US
dc.subjectCumulative risken_US
dc.subjectSustainability indexen_US
dc.subjectMarkov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)en_US
dc.titleA cumulative risk and sustainability index for pavementsen_US
dc.typePostprint Articleen_US

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