Advances in forecasting : an introduction in light of the debate on inflation forecasting

dc.contributor.authorBanerjee, Anindya
dc.contributor.authorHall, Stephen George
dc.contributor.authorKouretas, Georgios P.
dc.contributor.authorTavlas, George S.
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-01T12:19:00Z
dc.date.issued2023-04*
dc.descriptionDATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : All data are taken from publicly available data sources as defined in the data appendix. The particular vintage of data used in this study is available upon request from the authors.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe sharp rise in inflation during the past few years has engendered comparisons with the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. Like that earlier episode, the recent inflation has been underpinned by supply-side shocks and, in the case of the United States, by highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. Like that early episode, the recent inflation has been largely unpredicted; it caught US policy makers by surprise, despite the fact that several prominent economists had warned early on that fiscal and monetary policies were setting the stage for an upsurge in inflation. To motivate this special issue, we provide a brief account of the policy miscues and policy debates that resulted from the large forecast errors in predicting the upsurge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. We then provide an overview of the papers in this issue, which address a range of methodological and empirical issues related to forecasting and highlight the dilemmas faced by agents within the economy and policy makers.en_US
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_US
dc.description.embargo2025-01-26
dc.description.librarianhj2023en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe University of Crete and the Bank of Greece.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/foren_US
dc.identifier.citationBanerjee, A., Hall, S.G., Kouretas, G.P., & Tavlas, G.S. (2023). Advances in forecasting: An introduction in light of the debate on inflation forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 42(3), 455–463. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2949.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0277-6693 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1099-131X (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1002/for.2949
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/91001
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.rights© 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : Advances in forecasting: An introduction in light of the debate on inflation forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 42(3), 455–463. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2949. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/for.en_US
dc.subjectForecasting accuracyen_US
dc.subjectInflation debateen_US
dc.subjectPolicy decisionsen_US
dc.subjectSDG-08: Decent work and economic growthen_US
dc.titleAdvances in forecasting : an introduction in light of the debate on inflation forecastingen_US
dc.typePostprint Articleen_US

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Banerjee_Advances_2023.pdf
Size:
318.02 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Postprint Article

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description: