Mathematical assessment of the role of human behavior changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the United States

dc.contributor.authorPant, Binod
dc.contributor.authorSafdar, Salman
dc.contributor.authorSantillana, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorGumel, Abba B.
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-04T08:09:34Z
dc.date.issued2024-06
dc.description.abstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has not only presented a major global public health and socio-economic crisis, but has also significantly impacted human behavior towards adherence (or lack thereof) to public health intervention and mitigation measures implemented in communities worldwide. This study is based on the use of mathematical modeling approaches to assess the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is impacted by population-level changes of human behavior due to factors such as (a) the severity of transmission (such as disease-induced mortality and level of symptomatic transmission), (b) fatigue due to the implementation of mitigation interventions measures (e.g., lockdowns) over a long (extended) period of time, (c) social peer-pressure, among others. A novel behavior-epidemiology model, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, is developed and fitted using observed cumulative SARS-CoV-2 mortality data during the first wave in the United States. The model fits the observed data, as well as makes a more accurate prediction of the observed daily SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the first wave (March 2020–June 2020), in comparison to the equivalent model which does not explicitly account for changes in human behavior. This study suggests that, as more newly-infected individuals become asymptomatically-infectious, the overall level of positive behavior change can be expected to significantly decrease (while new cases may rise, particularly if asymptomatic individuals have higher contact rate, in comparison to symptomatic individuals).en_US
dc.description.departmentMathematics and Applied Mathematicsen_US
dc.description.embargo2025-06-18
dc.description.librarianhj2024en_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-03:Good heatlh and well-beingen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe National Science Foundation and the Fulbright Foreign Student Program.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://link.springer.com/journal/11538en_US
dc.identifier.citationPant, B., Safdar, S., Santillana, M. et al. Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 86, 92 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01324-x.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0092-8240 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1522-9602 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1007/s11538-024-01324-x
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/96791
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.rights© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology 2024. The original publication is available at : http://link.springer.comjournal/11538 [12 months embargo]en_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19 pandemicen_US
dc.subjectCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)en_US
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)en_US
dc.subjectBehavior-epidemiology modelen_US
dc.subjectBehavior-free modelen_US
dc.subjectControl reproduction numberen_US
dc.subjectAsymptomatic transmissionen_US
dc.subjectSymptomatic transmissionen_US
dc.subjectSDG-03: Good health and well-beingen_US
dc.titleMathematical assessment of the role of human behavior changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the United Statesen_US
dc.typePostprint Articleen_US

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