Effects of fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty on economic activity in South Africa

Abstract

The paper examines the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on economic activities in South Africa while attempting to identify the role of uncertainty. The paper uses quarterly time series data using the variables of income tax, consumption tax, capital tax, and government expenditure to measure fiscal policy uncertainty while interest and inflation rate variables were used to measure monetary policy uncertainty. Also, real gross domestic product, real consumption, real investment, and employment were used to measure economic activities. The partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used for analysis and result presented for measurement and structural models. Results revealed the existence of policy uncertainty in the South African economy which tends to reduce the level of economic activity as uncertainty increases. This result informs of the need for policy makers to minimally reduce uncertainties for both fiscal and monetary policies for the economy to improve.