The predictability of stock market volatility in emerging economies : relative roles of local, regional, and global business cycles

dc.contributor.authorBouri, Elie
dc.contributor.authorDemirer, Riza
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.authorSun, Xiaojin
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-07T10:55:25Z
dc.date.issued2020-09
dc.description.abstractThis paper explores the role of business cycle proxies, measured by the output gap at the global, regional, and local levels, as potential predictors of stock market volatility in the emerging BRICS nations. We observe that the emerging BRICS nations display a rather heterogeneous pattern when it comes to the relative role of idiosyncratic factors as a predictor of stock market volatility. While domestic output gap is found to capture significant predictive information for India and China particularly, the business cycles associated with emerging economies and the world in general are strongly important for the BRIC countries and weakly for South Africa, especially in the postglobal financial crisis era. The findings suggest that despite the increase in the financial integration of world capital markets, emerging economies can still bear significant exposures to idiosyncratic risk factors, an issue of high importance for the profitability of global diversification strategies.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_ZA
dc.description.embargo2022-01-21
dc.description.librarianhj2020en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/foren_ZA
dc.identifier.citationBouri E, Demirer R, Gupta R, Sun X. The predictability of stock market volatility in emerging economies: Relative roles of local, regional, and global business cycles. Journal of Forecasting. 2020;39:957–965. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2672.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0277-6693 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1099-131X (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1002/for.2672
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/77958
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherWileyen_ZA
dc.rights© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : 'The predictability of stock market volatility in emerging economies: Relative roles of local, regional, and global business cycles', Journal of Forecasting, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 957-965, 2020, doi : 10.1002/for.2672. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/for.en_ZA
dc.subjectBrazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS)en_ZA
dc.subjectBusiness cyclesen_ZA
dc.subjectForecastingen_ZA
dc.subjectStock market volatilityen_ZA
dc.titleThe predictability of stock market volatility in emerging economies : relative roles of local, regional, and global business cyclesen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

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