Managing climate risk in livestock production in South Africa : how might improved tailored forecasting contribute?

Abstract

The 2015–2017 summer rainfall seasons in both South and southern Africa saw drought and heat stress severely impacting the livestock production sector, as well as agriculture more broadly. Although the region has a longstanding operational forecasting system; tailored forecasting, including that designed for the livestock sector, has declined in presence and operational use in recent years. The potential use of such information to enable the livestock sector to better cope with difficult seasons such as those of 2015–17 is clear. A range of promising initiatives attempt to move South Africa (and the broader southern Africa region) in the direction of improved tailored forecasting, integrated, in part, into the operational system. A number of gaps in application remain, however, and the paper concludes with a discussion as to how the field might move forward, particularly in the light of possible increased frequency of drought and heat stress in the future.