Testing for unemployment persistence in Nigeria

Abstract

In this study, we examine the behaviour of unemployment in Nigeria using fractional integration & fractional cointegration techniques. Based on the fractional integration technique, we find that unemployment in Nigeria exhibits mean reverting properties but with a longer time horizon for any shock effect to fizzle out. The fractional cointegration technique reveals that unemployment shares somewhat common long run relationships with macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation and output. Therefore, policy actions by relevant authority targeted at any of these macroeconomic variables may have implications on unemployment in Nigeria and vice versa. However, the results leading to these conclusions are sensitive to sample periods and intervening variables.