Contagious diseases and gold : over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions
| dc.contributor.author | Bouri, Elie | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gupta, Rangan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Nel, Jacobus | |
| dc.contributor.author | Shiba, Sisa | |
| dc.contributor.email | rangan.gupta@up.ac.za | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-07T08:50:52Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022-12 | |
| dc.description | DATA AVAILABILITY : Data will be made available on request. | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | We investigate the effect of the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases on real gold returns over the period 1258–2020 using a predictive quantile regression model, which is justified by the features of non-normality, nonlinearity, and structural breaks in the dataset involving real gold returns and the probability of fatality. We show that real gold returns hedge the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases primarily when the gold market is bullish. However, the hedging ability is insignificant when the gold market is bearish. These results are important for investors seeking refuge in gold during rare disaster events. | en_US |
| dc.description.department | Economics | en_US |
| dc.description.embargo | 2024-09-14 | |
| dc.description.librarian | hj2023 | en_US |
| dc.description.uri | https://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl | en_US |
| dc.identifier.citation | Bouri, E., Gupta, R., Nel, J. & Shiba, S. 2022, 'Contagious diseases and gold: over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions', Finance Research Letters, vol. 50, art. 103266, pp. 1-8, doi : 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103266. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1544-6123 (print) | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1544-6131 (online) | |
| dc.identifier.other | 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103266 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/93176 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
| dc.rights | © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Finance Research Letters. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Finance Research Letters, vol. 50, art. 103266, pp. 1-8, doi : 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103266. | en_US |
| dc.subject | Real gold returns | en_US |
| dc.subject | Contagious diseases | en_US |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 outbreak | en_US |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 pandemic | en_US |
| dc.subject | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) | en_US |
| dc.subject | Probability of fatality | en_US |
| dc.subject | Predictive quantile regression model | en_US |
| dc.subject | SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth | en_US |
| dc.title | Contagious diseases and gold : over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions | en_US |
| dc.type | Postprint Article | en_US |