The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area

dc.contributor.authorBalcilar, Mehmet
dc.contributor.authorDemirer, Riza
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.authorVan Eyden, Renee
dc.contributor.emailrenee.vaneyden@up.ac.zaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-31T07:22:37Z
dc.date.issued2017-11
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the role of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Euro area. Using a structural Interacted Vector Autoregressive (IVAR) model conditional on high and low levels of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, we find that uncertainty regarding policy changes in the U.S. dampens the effect of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area, with both price and output reacting more significantly to monetary policy shocks when the level of U.S. policy uncertainty is low. We argue that the U.S. government’s actions regarding policy changes in the U.S. is a source of uncertainty for Euro area investors and high levels of policy uncertainty that spill over from the U.S. drive Euro area investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a relatively weaker (and sometimes insignificant) response of price and output to monetary tightening in the Euro area. The findings underscore the importance of market integration and coordination of economic policy changes on the effectiveness of monetary policy on the macroeconomy on both sides of the Atlantic. Our results thus, provide evidence in favour of the policy ineffectiveness hypothesis in the Euro area contingent on the economic policy uncertainty of the U.S.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_ZA
dc.description.embargo2019-11-23
dc.description.librarianhj2017en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/jpmen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationBalcilar, M., Demirer, R., Gupta, R. & Van Eyden, R. 2017, 'The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area', Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 1052-1064.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0161-8938 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1873-8060 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.09.002
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/62979
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights© 2017 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Policy Modeling. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 1052-1064, 2017. doi : 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.09.002.en_ZA
dc.subjectInteracted vector autoregressive (IVAR)en_ZA
dc.subjectEconomic policy uncertaintyen_ZA
dc.subjectMonetary policyen_ZA
dc.subjectInteracted structural vector autoregressive modelen_ZA
dc.titleThe impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro areaen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Balcilar_Impact_2017.pdf
Size:
727.05 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Postprint Article

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.75 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description: