Application of robust methods to car ownership trends modelling in Johannesburg

dc.contributor.authorKelly, John
dc.date.accessioned2008-06-11T05:13:58Z
dc.date.available2008-06-11T05:13:58Z
dc.date.issued2007-07
dc.descriptionThis paper was transferred from the original CD ROM created for this conference. The material on the CD ROM was published using Adobe Acrobat technology. The original CD ROM was produced by Document Transformation Technologies Postal Address: PO Box 560 Irene 0062 South Africa. Tel.: +27 12 667 2074 Fax: +27 12 667 2766 E-mail: doctech@doctech.co.za URL: http://www.doctech.co.zaen
dc.description.abstractPaper presented at the 26th Annual Southern African Transport Conference 9 - 12 July 2007 "The challenges of implementing policy?", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.en
dc.description.abstractABSTRACT:Robust regression and local polynomial smoothing are applied to the inverse problem for the logistic differential equation (DE) model, in order to develop a more objective, accurate and automatable trends model. A method of inferring the time shift parameter is proposed and applied, allowing the closed form solution of the DE to be used for the prediction of ownership levels in Johannesburg. A simulation study is employed to verify and evaluate the application of non-linear regression to the inverse problem. It is demonstrated that considerable improvements in accuracy, over the transformation to linear-form method, can be obtained. However, on application to actual data, the non-linear regression algorithm fails to converge. The appropriateness of the methods in the case of lower asymptote and early growth phase data, and heterogeneous populations are investigated by simulation.en
dc.format.extent450376 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationKelly, J 2007,'Application of robust methods to car ownership trends modelling in Johannesburg', Paper presented to the 26th Annual Southern African Transport Conference, South Africa, 9 - 12 July 2007. 10p.en
dc.identifier.isbn192001702X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/5871
dc.languageeng
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSATCen
dc.relation.ispartofSATC 2007
dc.rightsUniversity of Pretoriaen
dc.subjectTransport policiesen
dc.subjectRobust regressionen
dc.subjectLocal polynomial smoothingen
dc.subjectTime shift parameteren
dc.subject.lcshTransportation -- South Africa -- Congressesen
dc.subject.lcshTransportation services -- South Africa -- Congressesen
dc.subject.lcshAutomobile ownership -- South Africa -- Johannesburg -- Congressesen
dc.subject.lcshAotomobile ownership -- South Africa -- Johannesburg -- Mathematical modelsen
dc.titleApplication of robust methods to car ownership trends modelling in Johannesburgen
dc.typeEventen

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