Public policy uncertainty, regime contests and divestment : the case of South Africa

Abstract

Public policy uncertainty has become as destructive and inhibiting to developing political economies seeking entrance into the new, information-driven international political economy as uncivil contests between the state and society had been in the aftermath of decolonisation. The notion of a weak state persists as well as the doggedness of authoritarian urges in the guise of dispersed power politics beyond the distributive interests of the liberal-democratic experiments. This article reflects on the contest between two dominant, but contending regime preferences; the information-age-driven (market) political economy versus the distributive interests of systemic patronage. The latter might well infuse a degree of legitimacy in times of inadequate extraction, but could also be the reason for divesting in the economy and the policy uncertainty which precedes the low economic growth trajectories since 2009. The conclusion is that depending on which of these two regime preferences prevail over the other in the milieu of rapid transformation within the international (political and economic) regime South Africa’s prospect for social stability can be mapped.