The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa : a time-series analysis

dc.contributor.authorScovronick, Noah S.
dc.contributor.authorSera, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorGarzena, Diego
dc.contributor.authorFratianni, Simona
dc.contributor.authorWright, Caradee Yael
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonio
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-17T08:03:53Z
dc.date.available2019-10-17T08:03:53Z
dc.date.issued2018-02
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND : There is an extensive literature describing temperature-mortality associations in developed regions, but research from developing countries, and Africa in particular, is limited. METHODS : We conducted a time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis. RESULTS : We found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. The relative risk for all-age all-cause mortality on very cold and hot days (1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution) was 1.14 (1.10,1.17) and 1.06 (1.03,1.09), respectively, when compared to the minimum mortality temperature. This “U” shaped relationship was evident for every age and cause group investigated, except among 25–44 year olds. The strongest associations were in the youngest (< 5) and oldest (> 64) age groups and for cardiorespiratory causes. Heat effects occurred immediately after exposure but diminished quickly whereas cold effects were delayed but persistent. Overall, 3.4% of deaths (~ 290,000) in South Africa were attributable to non-optimum temperatures over the study period. We also present results for the 52 district municipalities individually. CONCLUSIONS : An assessment of the largest-ever dataset for analyzing temperature-mortality associations in (South) Africa indicates mortality burdens associated with cold and heat, and identifies the young and elderly as particularly vulnerable.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipAG and FS are supported by a research grant from the Medical Research Council UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1). CYW is supported by research funding from the National Research Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/envresen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationScovronick, N.S., Sera, F., Acquaotta, F. et al., 2018, 'The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa : a time-series analysis', Environmental Research, vol. 161, pp. 229-235.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0013-9351 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1096-0953 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/71878
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/).en_ZA
dc.subjectTemperatureen_ZA
dc.subjectWeatheren_ZA
dc.subjectMortalityen_ZA
dc.subjectSouth Africa (SA)en_ZA
dc.subjectTime series analysisen_ZA
dc.subjectStillbirthen_ZA
dc.subjectRisk factoren_ZA
dc.subjectAmbient airen_ZA
dc.subjectRespiratory tract diseaseen_ZA
dc.subjectEnvironmental temperatureen_ZA
dc.subjectClimate changeen_ZA
dc.subjectCardiovascular diseaseen_ZA
dc.titleThe association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa : a time-series analysisen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA

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