Export and economic growth in Namibia : a Granger causality analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time-series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi-directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export-led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth.