Uncertainty and tourism in Africa

Abstract

Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focuses mainly on developed countries. This study weighs in on the recent debate on African tourism by providing evidence on the role that economic uncertainties have on tourist arrivals. Using panel data from 1996 to 2017, we find that economic uncertainties reduce tourist arrivals in Africa in comparison to other global regions, such as Europe. Further disaggregation by African regions reveals that economic uncertainties in West and North African regions drive these adverse results. These regions have been the hardest hit by political instability and social unrest during the period under review, which may have acted as a deterrent to tourists.