Mediation as a Preventative Measure Against Unconstitutional Changes of Governement: African Union as a Case Study

Abstract

Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG) are a major threat to political stability, democratic governance, economic development, and human rights across Africa. Despite the African Union’s (AU) normative commitment to prevent UCG, the recurrence of military coups and unconstitutional political transitions reveals persistent gaps in its conflict prevention and response mechanisms. This study uses the AU as a case study to investigate the effectiveness of mediation as a preventive strategy against UCG. Drawing on the theoretical perspectives of mediation, conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy, the study analyses the AU’s legal and institutional frameworks, most notably the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. The study assesses strengths and weaknesses of AU-led mediation processes and defines implementation challenges. Additionally, the roles of regional economic communities (RECs), the United Nations, and other international actors that complement AU efforts are evaluated. The findings reveal that significant implementation gaps persist, despite the AU’s development of a robust normative framework. These gaps are caused by limited political will, resource constraints, and inconsistent application of the framework’s principles. The study also finds that early warning systems, inclusive dialogue, and sustained diplomatic engagement are critical in preventing UCG. Ultimately, the research concludes that mediation holds substantial preventive potential, but for it to be truly effective in curbing unconstitutional power transitions in Africa, it must be restructured to prioritise early action, local ownership, and political accountability.